Projected Republican
seat share
Actual seat share
Efficiency gap
In Wisconsin, Republicans gained a much greater share each election than the district-by-district vote suggests....
Wisconsin statehouse elections
45.1%
60.6
2012
58.0
63.6
2014
55.4
64.6
2016
...while in Illinois, the actual seat shares aligned closely with the projections.
Illinois statehouse elections
2012
39.8%
42.1
2014
39.8
42.8
2016
41.5
43.2